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Bian Fengwei: The current market is facing two core issues

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发表于 2022-1-30 12:30:30 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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节前市场令人沮丧,连绵的下跌与之前连续出台的稳增长扶持政策形成了鲜明的对比,也让投资者对2022年的预期蒙上了一层阴霾。

至于下跌的原因,说法很多,有人说是美联储的加息脚步临近,外围市场的不确定性增加导致做多力量不足;有人说是对于经济的担忧,数据的不佳使得稳增长的效果减弱,对于大量企业不佳的四季报的担忧在盘面反映;还有人说是量化监管加强,整体资金捉襟见肘;更有人说公募基金抱团最后砸了自己的脚,现在新增没了,又退不出来,导致整体市场羸弱不堪。

投资就是这样,多面的市场可以从不同维度进行分析,但每个阶段总有一些主因是关键因素,我们认为当下的核心是稳增长能否持续发力与节后公募的资金接力问题。

从12月工作会议稳增长至今,货币端降准与LPR的下调都已落实,而财政端文件不少落实不多,需要节后更多的发力,让投资者看到经济数据的回升,这是对市场内部基础的夯实。

另一方面则是公募基金的问题了,在经历了三年银行理财十万亿元的搬家之后,似乎今年来到了一个瓶颈期,赛道投资在公募不断新增的子弹面前被持续推高估值,以至于市场早就不能分清这些所谓的赛道龙头究竟是公司太好还是公募的钱太多。之前我们早就说过,不谈估值的投资最后总会走向不归路,但问题是现在的回撤面临着拥挤赛道和估值的双杀,简单说就是想卖的人不少,但接盘的人没了。

相比于2021年三月消费等赛道股的下跌,届时公募尚有一二月大规模新增的三四千亿元资金屯兵在外,尚有余地,之后成长赛道切换,完成了下半年周期与新能源的行情。而当下我们发现赛道股越跌公募的仓位反而越重,这表明新增的良性循环正在被打破,节后能否完成资金面的接力至关重要,若没有银行端不断的新增子弹提供,恐怕今年整年赛道都将凄凄惨惨了。

经过了三年公募为王的行情后,有些问题是值得反思和调整的,也许虎年将会有重新定价,保险资金与北上资金或将成为今年的关键新增变量。

等待节后政策的加码、等待节后新增的回暖,2022让我们一起 “心有猛虎细嗅蔷薇”。

(作者为国泰君安上海研究总监)

 楼主| 发表于 2022-2-2 10:30:45 | 显示全部楼层
The market was gloomy ahead of the holiday, as the continuous decline contrasted sharply with the steady growth support policies and cast a cloud over investors' expectations for 2022.
As for the reasons for the decline, there are many theories. Some people say that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike is approaching, and the increasing uncertainty in peripheral markets leads to the lack of long power. Some people say it is about economic worries. Poor data weaken the effect of stable growth, and worries about a large number of enterprises' poor quarterly reports are reflected in the disk. Some people say that quantitative supervision is strengthened, and the overall funding is insufficient. More people say that the public fund group finally hit their own feet, now added, and can not come out, resulting in the overall market weak.
Investment is like this. The multi-faceted market can be analyzed from different dimensions, but there are always some key factors at each stage. We believe that the current core is whether steady growth can continue to generate power and the capital relay of public offering after the Holiday.
Since the working meeting in December, the growth has been steady, and the reduction of the monetary reserve requirement ratio and LPR have been implemented, while the fiscal documents have not been implemented, so more efforts are needed after the holiday to let investors see the recovery of economic data, which is to consolidate the internal basis of the market.
Is a problem of public funds, be on the other hand, after three years bank money ten trillion yuan after the move, seems to be this year came to a bottleneck period, investment track in front of the public offering constantly new bullet can be pushed up valuations, so that the market is already can't distinguish these so-called leading track company is too good or offering too much money. As we have said before, investment without valuation will eventually lead to the road of no return, but the problem is that the retracement now faces a crowded track and valuation double kill, simply put, there are many people who want to sell, but no one to take the offer.
Compared with the decline of consumption and other track stocks in March 2021, there is still room for the public offering of three or four hundred billion yuan in January and February to be deployed outside, and then the growth track switch completes the cycle and new energy market in the second half of the year. At present, we find that the more the track stocks fall, the heavier the position of the public offering, which shows that the new virtuous cycle is being broken. It is very important to complete the relay of the capital after the festival. Without the continuous new bullets provided by the bank, I am afraid that the track will be miserable throughout the year.
After three years of public offering as king's market, some problems are worth reflecting and adjusting, perhaps the Year of the Tiger will have a re-pricing, insurance capital and capital will become the key new variables this year.
Waiting for the increase of post-holiday policies, waiting for the new warming after the holiday, 2022 let us together "the heart of the tiger sniff roses".
(The writer is Guotai Junan Research Director in Shanghai)
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