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Bian Fengwei: The current market is facing two core issues

发表于 2022-1-30 12:30:30 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式








等待节后政策的加码、等待节后新增的回暖,2022让我们一起 “心有猛虎细嗅蔷薇”。


 楼主| 发表于 2022-2-2 10:30:45 | 显示全部楼层
The market was gloomy ahead of the holiday, as the continuous decline contrasted sharply with the steady growth support policies and cast a cloud over investors' expectations for 2022.
As for the reasons for the decline, there are many theories. Some people say that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike is approaching, and the increasing uncertainty in peripheral markets leads to the lack of long power. Some people say it is about economic worries. Poor data weaken the effect of stable growth, and worries about a large number of enterprises' poor quarterly reports are reflected in the disk. Some people say that quantitative supervision is strengthened, and the overall funding is insufficient. More people say that the public fund group finally hit their own feet, now added, and can not come out, resulting in the overall market weak.
Investment is like this. The multi-faceted market can be analyzed from different dimensions, but there are always some key factors at each stage. We believe that the current core is whether steady growth can continue to generate power and the capital relay of public offering after the Holiday.
Since the working meeting in December, the growth has been steady, and the reduction of the monetary reserve requirement ratio and LPR have been implemented, while the fiscal documents have not been implemented, so more efforts are needed after the holiday to let investors see the recovery of economic data, which is to consolidate the internal basis of the market.
Is a problem of public funds, be on the other hand, after three years bank money ten trillion yuan after the move, seems to be this year came to a bottleneck period, investment track in front of the public offering constantly new bullet can be pushed up valuations, so that the market is already can't distinguish these so-called leading track company is too good or offering too much money. As we have said before, investment without valuation will eventually lead to the road of no return, but the problem is that the retracement now faces a crowded track and valuation double kill, simply put, there are many people who want to sell, but no one to take the offer.
Compared with the decline of consumption and other track stocks in March 2021, there is still room for the public offering of three or four hundred billion yuan in January and February to be deployed outside, and then the growth track switch completes the cycle and new energy market in the second half of the year. At present, we find that the more the track stocks fall, the heavier the position of the public offering, which shows that the new virtuous cycle is being broken. It is very important to complete the relay of the capital after the festival. Without the continuous new bullets provided by the bank, I am afraid that the track will be miserable throughout the year.
After three years of public offering as king's market, some problems are worth reflecting and adjusting, perhaps the Year of the Tiger will have a re-pricing, insurance capital and capital will become the key new variables this year.
Waiting for the increase of post-holiday policies, waiting for the new warming after the holiday, 2022 let us together "the heart of the tiger sniff roses".
(The writer is Guotai Junan Research Director in Shanghai)
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