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Interest payments on government debt exceeded 1 trillion yuan for the first time

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发表于 2022-1-30 14:53:05 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
第一财经

随着近年来我国政府举债规模增加,债务利息支出首次突破1万亿元。

财政部最新数据显示,2021年全国一般公共预算支出246322亿元,同比增长0.3%。其中债务付息支出10456亿元,同比增长6.6%。据此,2021年债务付息支出占全国一般公共预算支出比重约4.25%。

中国社会科学院大学教授、博士生导师吉富星对第一财经分析,政府利息支出增加是举债“开前门、堵后门”和积极财政政策的反映。一般公共预算支出中,政府债务付息支出首次突破1万亿元,主要是反映了赤字范畴的国债、地方政府一般债付息规模在攀升,专项债利息支出列入在对应的政府性基金债务付息支出科目中。近年来保持相对较高的赤字规模来加强跨周期调节、稳定宏观经济,国债、一般债规模上升较快。

粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒告诉第一财经,全国一般公共预算支出主要科目中,债务利息支出增速仅次于科技支出增速(7.2%),绝对值突破1万亿元,这意味着债务规模总量扩大的同时推升了偿债压力,降低了财政统筹能力,但总体上全国层面不必过于担心,因为我国的货币政策与财政的协同在加强,政策利率还有下降空间。

自2016年财政部公开债务付息支出数据以来,债务付息增速基本保持两位数增长,明显高于同期一般公共预算支出增速,不过去年债务付息增速首次降为个位数。

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吉富星认为,相比前些年,债务利息支出增速放缓,主要是因为近几年作为赤字率基数的GDP增速放缓、赤字率区间相对较为稳定所致,同时,近年来政府债券利率有所下降、加快了还本,也导致了利息支出增速放缓。

中央财经大学温来成教授告诉第一财经,由于前些年发债期限不够均衡,会导致每年偿债利息金额有明显差异。

吉富星表示,利息支出上升的确挤占了政府财力、加剧了地方财政负担,也会引发部分地方财政紧运行态势和压力。但应辩证看待风险问题,目前中国总体上政府债务风险可控,政府债务攀升具有积极意义。

他认为,首先正是“开前门”的低成本、透明化的政府债券替代了部分以往高成本、不规范的平台债或隐性债务,看似政府债务累积和利息上升较快,但权衡对比后看,实际降低了财政风险。

其次债务本身是中性的、关键是看债务的效率,保持适度赤字规模,有助于稳定宏观经济、缓解财政压力,我国政府债务形成了优良的资产或提升了经济社会效益,总体配置和使用效率较高。

“横向对比看,我国政府杠杆率不高,显著低于全球平均水平、更远低于发达国家,同时,从利息支出/GDP的比例等与国际比较看,也相对较低,在财力承受范围内。但值得注意的是,我国债务利率与主要发达国家相比仍相对较高,未来也应加强政策的统筹协调,关注政府债券利率适度、合理下调。”吉富星说。

财政部副部长许宏才在去年12月国新办发布会上介绍,截至2020年末全国政府债务余额是46.55万亿元,政府负债率(政府债务余额/GDP)为45.8%,低于国际通行的60%警戒线,也低于主要市场经济国家和新兴市场国家水平,风险总体可控。2020年末地方政府债务率(债务余额/综合财力)是93.6%,总体来说不高。国际上通行的标准在100%到120%之间。总体来看,我国地方政府的债务率是不高的。

目前地方政府付息规模较大。根据财政部数据,去年前10个月地方政府债券支付利息为8119亿元。这里的利息不仅包括地方政府一般债券利息,还包括专项债券利息。而前述全国政府债务付息中,不包括地方政府专项债券利息支出。

罗志恒表示,由于利息的支出刚性大于本金,这对于一些财力紧张的地方政府而言,面临一定的挑战。

财政部原部长楼继伟曾在2020年底第五届财政与国家治理论坛上表示,地方政府债务存量一直在快速增加。虽然短期内增加债务可以缓解特殊时期财政紧缺的压力,但对未来地方财政可持续性提出了更大的挑战。“十四五”时期,多数省市的债务可持续性堪忧,粗略计算,大约四分之一的省级财政50%以上的财政收入将用于债务的还本付息。地方政府债务问题,不仅影响了地方政府公共服务供给能力,而且累积了财政金融风险。
 楼主| 发表于 2022-2-2 10:22:02 | 显示全部楼层
The first finance and economics,
With the increase of government borrowing in recent years, the debt interest expense has exceeded 1 trillion yuan for the first time.
According to the latest data from the Ministry of Finance, expenditure in 2021 will be 24,632.2 trillion yuan, up 0.3 percent year on year. Of this amount, debt interest payments amounted to 1045.6 billion yuan, up 6.6% year on year. Accordingly, interest payments on debt will account for about 4.25% of the country's general public budget expenditure in 2021.
Ji Fuxing, a professor and doctoral supervisor at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the increase in government interest spending is a reflection of borrowing to "open the front door and block the back door" and proactive fiscal policy. Interest payments on government debt in general public budgets exceeded 1 trillion yuan for the first time. This is mainly because interest payments on government bonds and general bonds of local governments, which reflect deficits, are on the rise. Interest payments on special bonds are included in interest payments on government-managed funds. In recent years, we have maintained relatively high deficit to strengthen cross-cycle adjustment and stabilize the macro economy, and the scale of national debt and general debt has risen rapidly.
Guangdong securities chief economist Luo Zhiheng told the first finance and economics, national key subjects in general public budget spending and debt payments growth after tech spending growth (7.2%), the absolute value reached 1 trillion yuan, which means that the total debt to expand at the same time push the debt service pressure, reduces the financial ability as a whole, but don't have to worry too much about the overall national level, As China's monetary policy and fiscal coordination is strengthening, policy interest rates still have room to fall.
Since the Ministry of Finance released data on debt interest payments in 2016, the growth rate of debt interest payments has basically maintained double-digit growth, significantly higher than the growth rate of general public budget expenditures in the same period, although last year, the growth rate of debt interest payments dropped to single digits for the first time.

Jifustar believes that compared with previous years, the growth rate of debt interest expenditure slows down, mainly because the GDP growth rate as the base of deficit ratio slows down in recent years, and the deficit ratio range is relatively stable. At the same time, the interest rate of government bonds has fallen in recent years and accelerated repayment of principal, which also leads to the growth rate of interest expenditure slows down.
Wen Laicheng, a professor at the Central University of Finance and Economics, told China Business News that the maturity of bonds issued in previous years was not balanced, resulting in significant differences in interest payments each year.
Jifuxing said that the rise in interest expenses did squeeze the government's financial resources, aggravated the local financial burden, will also cause some local fiscal tight operation situation and pressure. However, risks should be viewed dialectically. At present, the risk of Government debt in China is generally controllable, and the rise of government debt is of positive significance.
In his opinion, first of all, it is the low-cost, transparent government bonds that "open the front door" that replace part of the previously high cost and non-standard platform debt or hidden debt. It seems that the accumulation of government debt and interest rise quickly, but after weighing and comparing, it actually reduces the financial risk.
Secondly, the debt itself is neutral. The key is to look at the efficiency of the debt. Maintaining an appropriate deficit scale is conducive to stabilizing the macro economy and alleviating financial pressure.
"A horizontal comparison shows that The leverage ratio of the Chinese government is not high, significantly lower than the global average and even lower than that of developed countries. At the same time, the ratio of interest expenditure to GDP is also relatively low compared with international comparisons, which is within the financial capacity. However, it is worth noting that China's debt interest rate is still relatively high compared with major developed countries, so we should strengthen policy coordination in the future and pay attention to a moderate and reasonable reduction in government bond interest rates." Gifuxing said.
At a press conference held by the State Information Office in December last year, Xu Hongcai, vice-minister of Finance, said that by the end of 2020, China's outstanding government debt was 46.55 trillion yuan, and the government debt ratio (outstanding government debt /GDP) was 45.8%, lower than the internationally accepted warning line of 60%, and lower than the level of major market economies and emerging markets. The risks are generally under control. At the end of 2020, local government debt ratio (debt balance/comprehensive financial resources) was 93.6%, which is generally not high. The internationally accepted standard is between 100% and 120%. Generally speaking, the debt ratio of local governments in China is not high.
At present, the scale of local government interest payment is relatively large. Interest payments on local government bonds reached 811.9 billion yuan in the first 10 months of last year, according to the Ministry of Finance. The interest here includes not only local government general bond interest, but also special bond interest. The aforementioned interest payments on national government debt do not include interest payments on local government special bonds.
Luo zhiheng said that this is a challenge for some local governments with limited financial resources, as interest payments are more rigid than principal.
Lou Jiwei, former minister of Finance, said at the fifth Forum on Finance and National Governance at the end of 2020 that the stock of local government debt has been increasing rapidly. Although increasing debt in the short term can relieve the pressure of fiscal shortage in special periods, it poses a greater challenge to the sustainability of local finance in the future. During the 14th Five-year Plan period, the debt sustainability of most provinces and cities was worrying. According to rough calculation, more than 50% of the fiscal revenue of about a quarter of provincial finance departments would be used to service the principal and interest of the debt. The problem of local government debt not only affects the supply capacity of local government public services, but also accumulates financial risks.
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