Shanghai WTO Forum




查看: 4394|回复: 0

A New Year of global inflation could see a surge in market support

发表于 2022-2-2 07:52:49 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
International inflation continues, or welcome the New Year "rescue tide"? Central bank statement, central media voice, clear

From the second half of 2021 to February 2022, the real estate market was almost covered by "saving the real estate market". Since Harbin issued the document "To further promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate Market", it means that a new period of saving the real estate market has officially opened.
In fact, this is not the first city to save the market from 2021 to 2022, as early as the third quarter, Shenyang, Changchun and other provinces and cities have gradually introduced some measures to relax regulation. G and research center, deputy general manager think Yang Kewei evaluation, real estate in our country's cities after a long period of regulatory constraints, is clearly presented "weak", on the one hand, the purchasing power is not enough, lead to rapid decline in price, inventory tier cities on the other hand, plus land auction appeared again and again, there is no doubt that this is a sign of "cold".

First, some experts believe that 2022 (New Year) or to meet the "market rescue tide".
Experts generally agree on whether more cities will adopt aggressive "property policies" in the future. Scholars guang-yuan mar in fact is the truth that this signal, is the starting point of the housing market began to turn, guang-yuan mar, after four years in a row of housing deep compression, plus 2020 "black swan" effect, the housing market is cooling, in winter, but if you continue to throw cold water on, that's not cool, but rather frozen in it.
So Ma Guangyuan thinks, this apparently does not accord with "housing does not stir" gist, so this rescue - the city is a "timely rain".


At the same time, Ma teacher believes that the biggest risk of real estate is not "too fast rise" but "too fast fall", so more cities should join the "property market relaxation" team in the future.
What cities for the future will be "S" save the problem, experts Yang Kewei prediction is given, and he pointed out that there are at least three kinds of cities will follow "to save the property market" plan, such as high prices falling too fast, the property market new and second-hand housing inventory, high land auction is too high and financial dependence of city, the three cities, regulation is likely to further loosen.
According to experts, a new "rescue wave" or storm is coming.
Second, in addition to a new cycle of "easing", capital has increased.
In 2020, the global black swan, as a result, more than 90% of the national development and setbacks, the United States, Canada, Japan, France, Germany, Britain, not only growth is negative, and the overall dimension of the contraction, some shrink by 5%, some shrink by 10%, but we can only temporarily down in February after a coppi again, The annual growth rate turned positive.
In response to the "slow" and "life" multiple problems, such as the federal reserve, the bank of Japan, the European central bank and other economies are the "printing money and loose monetary" strategy, according to incomplete statistics, in 2020 by the end of 2021, more than 80% of the countries around the world are more or less "printing money", some line up to more than 30 $, Some cut interest rates more than 20 points, can say that the current world is immersed in an "inflation" capital feast, real estate is ready to explode.
Against the trend, the global property market rose by 25% in Australia, 41% in Canada, 55% in Sweden, 20% in Seoul, 10.8% in the Average price of the United States, 89% of the world's countries in the rise......
As we all know, countries are frantically printing money, global bulk commodities and raw materials rise, all kinds of building materials naturally also increase, the cost of building a house has increased, can the house not rise?
International inflation continues, real estate or "rescue tide"?
Under the above "positive" signals, the recent real estate market is "noisy", coupled with the "rolling", so the agents are happy, have started to run: do not buy a house, may go up again.
Three, so, will the following really as the above "prediction" as come true?
The answer is no, we have to admit that the housing market policy easing these factors may have an impact on the housing confidence from the side, but the impact is very limited, the real estate market can stride forward, the key is to see the "regulatory means" and "high-level tone". Central bank statement, central media voice!
1, the central bank proposed "two maintenance".
At the end of 2021, the Central Bank organized the 2021 monetary policy meeting, which changed the basic attitude of "the real estate" in the previous several times, but emphasized the keynote of the future real estate financial and monetary policy. Including to steadily promote the real estate credit growth, adhere to the substantive financial service system, the use of financial measures to promote the steady development of the property market, so as to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of buyers.
We will maintain the healthy development of the real estate market and safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers.
It seems that the Central bank has not put forward too many "requirements" for the real estate market, and only "two safeguards" are worth interpreting, which is also considered as a barometer of the turning point of the real estate currency strategy since 2021. "Safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of home buyers" is proposed for the first time, which mainly conveys two meanings: (1) For buyers who have the demand for housing, the bank should give loan support, if the rigid demand is not issued mortgage, obviously in violation of this original intention; ② In order to protect the rights and interests of the newly purchased house, those "excessive contraction" mortgage strategy, may have the possibility of moderate liberalization in the future.
With the arrival of monetary "easing" signals, will there be large-scale capital into the property market possibility? Don't. Because the "three red lines" and "double ceiling on loans" still exist, these two firmly control the channel of capital into the real estate market, not only compress the financing scale of real estate enterprises, but also restrict the gate for financial institutions to freely input funds to real estate enterprises. So say, want to expect capital to lift property market, it is impossible.
2, the central media proposed to "prevent big ups and downs".
At the same time, central Media Economic Daily also expressed its basic attitude towards the future housing market in the article "Beware of drastic Ups and downs in the property market", believing that:
To promote the healthy development of the real estate market, stability is the main keynote. Neither a big rise nor a big fall is stable. Stability is the ideal state of the real estate market.
Four, the next property is clear, do not misjudge, class 1 people have planned.
Should buy a house, in fact, most people are not living demand, but to see whether has the potential to "" house, southwestern university of finance and economics in the family health report report, have a special survey of buying intention, southwest deep report shows that more than 85% of the first purpose is for investment home buyers, purely for less than 15% of a house to live, so the house is worth buying, It depends on the "potential".
Will the house go up after 2022? How much? If Daming has a house worth 2 million yuan, what will be the income after 1 year under the general urban growth rate? Add up an account:
[Real estate cost] : Scientist Li Xunlei points out that the cost of real estate mainly includes capital occupancy cost and depreciation cost. Li Xunlei points out that the former is generally above 6%, and the latter is above 4%, so the direct cost of these two items adds up to 10%. Therefore, the one-year cost loss of daming's house of 2 million yuan is 2 million yuan * (6%+4%) = 200,000 yuan.
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册


QQ|Archiver|mobile|The little black house|Shanghai WTO Net ( 沪ICP备10034107号-3 )

GMT+8, 2024-4-15 04:10

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2023, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表